[商业咨询]大油企无缘独享油价上升之利

Oil at $100 a barrel is a bane for fuel consumers. But it isn't entirely a boon for major oil companies, either.

The rub: The economics of the production deals governing some of the world's biggest oil fields stipulate that the higher the oil price, the less production and reserves oil companies get. Host countries like Nigeria, Angola and Azerbaijan gain a bigger share.

Investors and analysts judge the oil giants in part by their ability to keep pumping more and more crude and find new reserves to replace what they have produced. So any decline in their share of production and reserves can have an impact on the way markets perceive companies like Exxon Mobil Corp., BP PLC and Total SA.

To be sure, what the majors lose in terms of volume they can make up for in profitability. 'Any fall in volumes is going to be more than offset by the $30' rise in crude prices over recent months, says Fadel Gheit, an analyst with Oppenheimer in New York. 'All the oil companies will make much more money in the fourth quarter than in the third.'

Still, the production loss comes amid other headaches. Surging demand for oil has driven up oil-field costs by boosting demand for skilled labor, rigs and steel. Higher prices have also put pressure on refining margins, or the difference between what oil costs and what a company gets for refined products like gasoline. Price volatility has played havoc with the long-term price assumptions that underpin the majors' big investment decisions.

Also, the higher oil climbs, the more host companies are encouraged to renegotiate oil contracts so they get a bigger cut of profits.

'In general, it is the governments who are the big winners when prices reach new heights,' Bob Dudley, chief executive of BP's TNK-BP Russian joint venture, told a conference last week.

Exxon last week reported net profit of $9.41 billion for the third quarter, almost a U.S. corporate record. But that was still lower than a year ago, despite crude's relentless rise. BP and ConocoPhillips also said profits fell, and production for most majors declined.

The companies cite the advantages of high crude prices. In the early phases of an expensive project, 'a higher price means you accelerate your cost recovery, which is a good thing,' said one BP executive, adding that price fluctuations balance out over the life of a contract. They also have little choice -- the richest deposits in nations with fewer constraints on oil have already been found.

Western oil companies' ability to turn up new sources of crude is being crimped by the rise of resource nationalism in oil-producing countries. State oil companies directly controlled 37% of global reserves at the end of 2005 and will account for nearly three-quarters of total oil production by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. And with oil revenues swelling their treasuries, oil-producing countries have less need of the foreign companies' capital for big projects than ever before.

Some investors are turning their backs on the traditional oil titans and migrating to national companies better able to capitalize on $100 oil. They include OAO Gazprom, the Russian national champion, which has squeezed foreign investors out of big energy projects, and Petroleo Brasileiro SA, or Petrobras, with its preferential access to Brazil's oil and natural-gas resources.

'The majors are like dinosaurs,' says Stephen Thornber, global equity fund manager at Threadneedle in London. 'Their production is flat or falling, and their returns are under pressure.' He says he has reduced his exposure to BP, Royal Dutch Shell PLC and Exxon over the last couple of years and moved to state oil companies whose production is on the rise. He also likes oilfield-services companies, like Schlumberger Ltd., which benefit from cost inflation and rising capital-investment rates in the industry.

One of the biggest hits Western companies are taking is on production-sharing contracts, a type of deal increasingly common in the oil patch. Under such a deal, investors bear all costs but can recover them from production before having to share much revenue with the host government.

High oil prices have meant investors recover costs more quickly and have to start sharing what is known as 'profit oil' with the host country earlier than planned.

Citigroup found that 31% of the production from major European oil companies is now based on production-sharing deals and that percentage is expected to rise to 46% by 2012.

GUY CHAZAN
桶100美元的油价对燃油消费者来说是一杯苦酒，但对大型石油公司来说也不完全是一场盛宴。

石油企业在开发世界最大一些油田时常常与油田所在国政府签订分成协议，这意味着油价越高，前者能获得的原油产量和储量就越少。其结果是，作为这些大型油田的所在国，尼日利亚、安哥拉和阿塞拜疆等一系列国家获得了更大权益。

投资者和分析师们一定程度上是根据大型石油公司不断增加原油开采量的能力以及保证原油储量动态平衡的能力来判断其投资价值的。因此埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp.)、英国石油(BP PLC)和道达尔(Total SA)等石油公司产量和储量份额的下降都会影响市场对它们的评估。

这些石油巨头在产量上的损失是可以通过盈利能力的增加来弥补的。Oppenheimer驻纽约的分析师菲德尔•盖伊特(Fadel Gheit)表示，近几个月来原油价格上涨了30美元，这足以补偿产量的任何下滑；在第四季度中，所有石油公司都能比上一季度赚得更多。

不过，伴随产量下降的还有其他一些令人头疼的问题。市场对熟练工人、井架和钢铁的旺盛需求推高了油田开采成本。原油价格的上涨还给炼油业务的利润率带来了下行压力。油价的大幅波动会严重干扰各大石油公司对长期油价的判断，而它们的重大投资决策都是基于这一判断作出的。

此外，油价越涨，大型油田的所在国要求重新谈判分成合同的积极性就越高，它们希望通过谈判从油田利润中获得更大份额。

英国石油公司在俄合资企业TNK-BP的首席执行长鲍勃•达德利(Bob Dudley)上周在一个石油业大会上说，一般说来，油价屡创新高时最大赢家往往是产油国政府。

埃克森美孚上周宣布第三季度的净利润为94亿美元，几乎达到了国内公司创纪录的水平。但这与去年同期相比仍显逊色，尽管这一年来原油价格已大幅上涨。英国石油公司和康菲石油公司(ConocoPhillips)也称自己的利润出现了下降，而世界各大石油公司的产量也大多有所下降。

这些公司认为油价高企确有有利之处。英国石油公司的一位高级管理人士指出，在高投入油气开发项目的早期阶段，油价上涨意味着成本回收过程也随之加快，这不失为好事一桩。他指出，油价涨跌所造成的影响会在合同执行期内逐步相互抵消掉。而且这些石油巨头也没有什么选择，因为在那些对石油控制不太严格的国家中，最佳的石油资源已经基本都被探明了。

产油国资源民族主义的兴起削弱了各大石油公司寻找原油新来源的能力。据国际能源署(International Energy Agency)称，国有石油公司目前直接控制了全球37%的石油储量，而到2030年时全球近四分之三的石油都将是这些公司开采的。随着石油收入的不断膨胀，产油国在开发大型油气项目方面对外国资本的需求也在降低。

一些投资者已经对老牌大型石油公司失去了兴趣，转而去追捧那些更能从每桶100美元油价中获益的国有石油公司。俄罗斯最大国有企业OAO Gazprom和巴西油气企业Petroleo Brasileiro SA （又名Petrobras）便属于这类公司。OAO Gazprom不断将外国投资者从俄罗斯的大型能源项目中排挤出去，而Petrobras则在开发巴西的油气资源方面拥有优先权。

Threadneedle驻伦敦的全球股票基金经理斯蒂芬•索恩伯(Stephen Thornber)说，那些传统的大型石油公司就像恐龙，它们的产量止步不前或不断下降，其投资回报率面临着下降压力。梭恩伯称，他在过去两年中已减少了对英国石油、荷兰皇家壳牌(Royal Dutch Shell)和埃克森美孚的投资，将更多资金投向了那些产量不断增长的国有石油公司。他还看好Schlumberger Ltd.等油田服务公司，不断增长的油田开采成本以及资本投资率使这些公司从中获益。

西方石油公司遭受的最大打击之一就来自于它们签订的产量分成合同，而签订这种合同的作法在石油行业正越来越普遍。根据这类协议，与产油国合作开发油田的外国投资者需承担所有开发成本，这些成本只有在油田投产后才能收回，而油田收回成本后获得的收入大部分都需由油田所在国与投资者分享。

在这种情况下，油价的居高不下就意味着投资者将以更快的速度收回油田开发成本，因此其与油田所在国分享所谓“利润油”的时间也要比原计划提前。

花旗集团发现，目前大型欧洲石油公司有31%的石油产量来自这类产量分成合同，而到2012年时这一比例预计将升至46%。

GUY CHAZAN
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