Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that while the most recent data suggest a 'resilient' U.S. economy, growth should slow 'noticeably' this quarter and into 2008 as the housing slump intensifies.
Still, the economy should strengthen later next year, he said, and the Fed's recent interest-rate reductions have put risks to growth and inflation roughly in balance.
His remarks suggest that, from a broad economic perspective, another rate reduction in December is unlikely, though he left the door open for future moves, saying the Fed will 'act as needed' to foster sustained economic growth and low inflation.
Since last week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, at which officials lowered the federal-funds rate by a quarter-percentage point to 4.5%, 'the few data releases that have become available have continued to suggest that the overall economy remained resilient in recent months,' Mr. Bernanke said in prepared testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.
'However, financial-market volatility and strains have persisted,' he said, and investor concerns about housing and its implications on the broader economy have 'intensified.'
Mr. Bernanke said he also sees 'important' upside inflation risks, citing higher oil and commodity prices and the dollar, which has 'weakened.'
Still, the Fed expects both overall and core inflation -- which excludes food and energy -- to stay in a 'range consistent with price stability next year,' Mr. Bernanke said, as inflation expectations have stayed 'reasonably' anchored. But that could change, he cautioned, should those price expectations 'become unmoored.'
Officials have lowered the federal-funds rate a total of three-quarters of a percentage point since September to limit the economic fallout from the housing and credit crunch. But in a statement last week, the Fed said it viewed upside inflation risks as roughly equal to downside growth risks, an assessment Mr. Bernanke repeated Thursday.
Comments this week by Fed governor Frederic Mishkin and Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser suggest officials aren't inclined to lower rates again when they meet next month.
Indeed, economic data suggest that, at least until now, the fallout from housing on the rest of the economy has been minimal. U.S. gross domestic product advanced at a 3.9% rate last quarter, the government said last week, and data since then suggest that could be revised to well above 4%.
However, private-sector forecasters expect the economy to grow only around 1.5% this quarter, and the Fed acknowledged in last week's policy statement that growth is likely to slow.
At last week's meeting, policy makers expected GDP 'would slow noticeably in the fourth quarter from its third-quarter rate,' Mr. Bernanke said, and that it will remain 'sluggish' in the first part of next year before 'strengthening' as the effects of the housing slump start to wane.
Meanwhile, Mr. Bernanke predicted that foreclosure rates would continue to rise and painted a grim picture of what such a development could have on the broader economy. Mr. Bernanke said subprime adjustable-rate mortgages posed the biggest threat, as it will be 'much more difficult' than before for homeowners with these loans to afford the increased monthly payments.
'Delinquencies on these mortgages are likely to rise further in coming quarters as a sizable number of recent-vintage subprime loans experience their first interest-rate resets,' he said.
Brian Blackstone / Damian Paletta
国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve，简称Fed)主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)表示，虽然最近的一些数 表明美国经济“很有活力”，但由于住宅市场跌势加剧，本季度直至进入2008年后的一段时期，美国经济将明显放缓。
不过，贝南克认为明年晚些时候经济将恢复强劲，而Fed最近的几次降息大致平衡了经济增长和通货膨胀的风险。
他的讲话表明，从宏观经济角度来年看，12月份再次降息的可能性不大。不过，贝南克也没有完全排除将来进一步动作的可能，他说，Fed将“采取必要措施”以实现经济持续增长并保持低通胀。
贝南克在向国会联合经济委员会作证时说，在美国公开市场操作委员会(Federal Open Market Committee)上周在政策会议上将联邦基金利率降低0.25%至4.5%后，从“已获得的少量经济数据看，最近几个月美国经济整体仍保持了活力。”
不过他又说，“金融市场仍处于波动和受压的状态，”而且投资者对住宅市场及其对宏观经济的影响越来越感到担忧。
贝南克说，鉴于高涨的原油和商品价格及“走软”的美元，他预计通货膨胀方面存在重大的上行风险。
不过，贝南克又说，由于通胀预期一直处于“适度”控制之下，因此，Fed预计整体通胀水平和剔除食品和能源价格的核心通胀水平将保持在“与明年的价格稳定性一致的范围”。但他也警告说，价格预期一旦失控，情形可能会发生变化。
自9月以来，为遏制住宅和信贷市场危机带来的影响，Fed已将联邦基金利率下调了75个基点。但Fed在上周的一个声明中表示，它认为通货膨胀的上行风险与经济增长的下行风险大致相当。贝南克周四的讲话也重申了这一看法。
Fed理事弗雷德里克•米希金(Frederic Mishkin)和费城联邦储备银行行长查尔斯•普罗索(Charles Plosser)本周的讲话暗示，Fed无意在下个月的政策会议上再次降息。
事实上，经济数据表明，至少到现在为止，住宅市场对其他经济领域的影响还是很小的。美国政府上周公布，三季度国内生产总值增长了3.9%，而从那之后公布的数据看，这个数字可能会修正到大大高于4%的水平。
不过，民间机构预计，本季度的经济增幅将只有1.5%，Fed在上周的政策声明中也承认经济增长可能会减缓。
贝南克说，在上周的会议中，决策者们预计四季度的GDP增幅将会比三季度的增幅显著放缓，且这股疲软态势将持续到明年上半年，之后才会随着住宅市场下滑的影响逐步消退而强劲起来。
贝南克同时还预计丧失抵押品赎偿权的比率会继续上升，并认为这一态势将对宏观经济产生不利影响。贝南克说，次级可调息抵押贷款的威胁最大，因为采用这种贷款方式的房主承担的月还款额越来越高，他们将面临更大的供款难度。
“随着相当一部分近期达成的次级抵押贷款即将迎来第一次利率调整，未来一段时间内这些抵押贷款的拖欠率有可能进一步上升，”贝南克说。
Brian Blackstone / Damian Paletta