The share prices of Akamai Technologies and Limelight Networks have taken a pounding in recent weeks.
And now for the bad news: Wall Street, seeing increased competition, thinks the stocks could go even lower.
Akamai and Limelight are 'content-delivery' companies that provide a specialized technology service to customers such as News Corp.'s MySpace and General Electric Co.'s MSNBC. Akamai and Limelight transport videogames, music downloads and streaming videos over their tech pipes -- essentially a scaled-down, private version of the Internet -- to their customers' Web sites.
The two companies, which charge fees for their services, dominate with 68% of the content-delivery market, according to consulting and research firm Frost & Sullivan.
Driving the sector is the popularity of online video site YouTube and social-networking sites like Facebook Inc. Online traffic has been growing at 60% a year since 2004, according to PriMetrica Inc.'s TeleGeography, a market-research firm. So, not long ago, both Akamai and Limelight seemed poised for a surge in business -- and stock prices.
Despite the growth in online content, the stocks of Akamai and Limelight have plunged. Since mid-July, Akamai's shares have dropped 26%, while the stock price of Limelight, which went public in June, has slid 53%. And Wall Street doesn't think the situation will improve soon.
'There's plenty more room for [Akamai and Limelight] to fall,' says Scott Kessler, an analyst with Standard & Poor's. Mr. Kessler has a 'sell' rating on Akamai and hasn't initiated coverage on Limelight. He doesn't own the stocks.
In 4 p.m. composite trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market, Akamai's shares were down 4.4%, or $1.73, to $37.97, while Limelight sank 7.5%, or 84 cents, to 10.39.
Akamai and Limelight shares remain expensive even after their recent declines, analysts say. Limelight is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 94 times estimated per-share earnings for the next 12-months, far above the tech industry's average of about 21 times earnings, says Thomson Financial. Akamai is trading at a P/E ratio of about 24 times future 12-month earnings.
'In the past, there was some justification for Akamai's high stock because it operated in a near-monopoly, but it's different today,' Mr. Kessler says. 'It's too expensive even now.'
Since early last year, start-ups like BitGravity and CacheLogic have emerged to move online content. Other companies that previously hadn't played in the market -- such as networking firms Level 3 Communications, Internap Network Service and BitTorrent -- also have entered the fray.
The new rivals are competing in myriad ways, but one significant method is by dropping prices. On average, content-delivery companies charge customers 30 cents to 60 cents for each gigabyte of content transported, say industry insiders. Some media and video sites move hundreds of thousands of gigabytes each month, meaning their fees can total in the hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Panther Express, a small content deliverer in New York, now says it plans to drop its prices 20% to 30%. Level 3 also has announced plans to similarly slash its prices. The moves are driving down margins for Limelight and forcing Akamai to cut its prices.
In August, Limelight reported that its margins had fallen to 30%, down from 51% a year earlier. On Monday, the Tempe, Ariz., company reported a net loss of $3.1 million, compared with a loss of $1.4 million, the year earlier. Limelight's revenue rose 67% from the previous year's $17.5 million.
Akamai, meanwhile, has said it has had to drop its prices in part due to competition. The Cambridge, Mass., company also forecasts that its annual revenue growth will slow to 46% from 51% and has said it expects its gross margins to decline throughout 2008.
'Both Akamai and Limelight have indicated increased activity on the [pricing] front, especially for larger deals,' says Kaufman Bros. analyst Sameet Sinha. 'Until now, most of the declines were largely offset by increased usage, but now we can expect to see a slowdown.' Mr. Sinha has 'sell' recommendations on both Limelight and Akamai. He doesn't own the stocks and his firm doesn't provide investment-banking services to either company.
Douglas Goebel, a portfolio manager with Quest Investment Management Inc., a Portland, Ore., financial manager with more than $2 billion in assets, says his firm sold all 668,000 of its Akamai shares starting in late July. 'It's clear the space is deteriorating,' he says.
Both Akamai and Limelight say they will outlast any new competition. Noting that it took Limelight six years to build a global footprint, David Hatfield, a senior vice president, says any new rivals will face barriers in establishing themselves.
Adds Mike Afergan, Akamai's chief technology officer: 'We've always seen competition and have been able to overcome it and it's no different now.'
To counter the competition, Akamai and Limelight are working to expand beyond their main customers of media and entertainment companies. They are aggressively courting more corporate and government clients and are rolling out software tools to help media companies better understand how consumers access their data.
Some analysts remain positive on Akamai and Limelight. Rodney Ratliff, an analyst at investment bank Stanford Group Co., says the growth of Internet traffic has made content delivery a necessity. Many companies won't let cheaper prices be the sole arbiter of who they choose for content delivery and some customers will naturally gravitate to the incumbents, he adds.
Mr. Ratliff has a 'buy' rating on Akamai and doesn't own the stock.
Bobby White
Akamai Technologies Inc.
总部地点：美国
上市地点：纳斯达克
股票代码：AKAM
Limelight Networks Inc.
总部地点：美国
上市地点：NCM
股票代码：LLNW
几周来，Akamai Technologies和Limelight Networks的股价都遭到了迎头痛击。
现在的利空消息是华尔街认为越发激烈的行业竞争将导致它们进一步走软。
Akamai和Limelight都是“数字内容交付”企业，它们面向新闻集团(News Corp.)旗下的MySpace和隶属于通用电气公司(General Electric)的MSNBC等客户提供专用技术服务。Akamai和Limelight通过自己的技术管道向客户的网站发布视频游戏、音乐下载以及流视频等内容。
据咨询及调查公司Frost & Sullivan提供的数据，这两家按服务收费的公司在内容交付市场中所占份额达到了68%。
视频网站YouTube和社交网站（例如Facebook Inc.）的蓬勃发展给整个内容交付行业带来了推动。PriMetrica麾下市场研究公司TeleGeography发布的数据显示，从2004年起网上信息量每年都以60%的幅度增长。所以就在不久前，Akamai和Limelight的业务还看似即将出现迅猛增长，而且它们的股票也定然随之高歌猛进。
可事与愿违，虽然网上内容不断增加，但Akamai和Limelight的股价却大幅走低。自7月中旬以来，Akamai的股价累计下跌了26%；而6月份才上市交易的Limelight的股价更是重挫了53%。而且在华尔街分析人士看来，这样的情况短期内不会好转。
标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)分析师斯科特•凯斯勒(Scott Kessler)表示，Akamai和Limelight的股票还有很大的下行空间。他对Akamai的评级为“卖出”，对Limelight则未予以评级。凯斯勒本人并未持有这两只股票。
Akamai的股票周三在纳斯达克收盘下挫1.73美元，至37.97美元，跌幅4.4%；Limelight下跌84美分，收于10.39美元，重挫了7.5%。
分析师表示，尽管这两只股票近期大幅走软，但它们依然非常昂贵。Thomson Financial提供的数据显示，Limelight基于未来12个月盈利情况的预期市盈率为94倍，远远高于科技行业约21倍的市盈率均值。Akamai基于未来12个月盈利情况的预期市盈率为24倍。
凯斯勒表示，在过去Akamai身价很高还多少有些道理，因为它在行业中基本上处于垄断的地位，但现在已是今非昔比了。
从去年年初开始，像BitGravity和CacheLogic这样的初创企业都涉足了内容交付领域，而其他原本置身事外的企业，如国际宽频网络基建及通讯公司(Level 3 Communications Inc.)、Internap Network Service和BitTorrent等，如今也纷纷跻身这一行列。
这些新对手的竞争策略可谓五花八门，但压价始终是它们的一个重要手段。业内人士透露，内容交付公司每传送1G内容的平均收费为30至60美分。某些媒体及视频网站每个月发送的内容有几十万G之多，这意味着它们为此支付的服务费将达到数十万美元。
Panther Express是一家纽约的小型内容交付商，它宣布计划降价20%至30%。国际宽频网络基建及通讯公司也表示打算以同样的幅度下调价格。此举不仅将拖累Limelight的利润率，还会迫使Akamai跟风降价。
Limelight在8月份时表示，公司的利润率从上年同期的51%降到了30%。这家位于亚利桑那州坦佩市的公司周一表示，净亏损额从上年同期的140万美元扩大至310万美元，但收入较上年同期的1,750万美元增长了67%。
与此同时Akamai也表示，已迫于竞争压力下调了价格。这家总部设在马萨诸塞州剑桥的企业预计其年收入增幅将从51%萎缩至46%，并预计2008年毛利率将有所下滑。
Kaufman Bros.的分析师萨米特•辛哈(Sameet Sinha)表示，Akamai和Limelight都暗示了将在定价方面有所行动，特别是对规模较大的业务而言；截至目前，用户的增长基本上抵消了价格下降的不利影响，但他们预计公司业务仍将出现滑坡。辛哈对Akamai和Limelight的评级均为“卖出”。他本人未投资这两只股票，而且Kaufman Bros.也没有向两家公司中的任何一家提供投行服务。
道格拉斯•戈贝尔(Douglas Goebel)是Quest Investment Management Inc.的基金经理，他说自7月底以来他就陆续将手中持有的668,000股Akamai股票全部抛出了。戈贝尔称当前情况明显恶化。Quest Investment Management Inc.管理着逾20亿美元的资产。
Akamai和Limelight都表示他们将战胜竞争对手。Limelight高级副总裁大卫•海特菲尔德(David Hatfield)谈到，公司花了六年时间才在全球站稳脚根，任何新的竞争对手在立足之时都会遇到障碍。
Akamai的首席技术长迈克•阿弗甘(Mike Afergan)表示，“公司时时刻刻都面临着竞争，过去我们能克敌制胜，现在也不例外。”
为了迎接挑战，Akamai和Limelight正努力把业务从主流客户群（即媒体和娱乐公司）上进行拓展，它们正在积极招揽更多的政府及公司客户，还推出了软件工具，帮助媒体公司更好地了解它们的客户是如何获取信息的。
也有一些分析师依然看好Akamai和Limelight。投资银行Stanford Group Co.的分析师罗德尼•罗特里弗(Rodney Ratliff)表示，互联网信息量的飙升使得内容交付成为必不可少的一项业务组成；许多公司都不会把低价作为挑选内容交付商的唯一评判标准，而且一些客户也会习惯性地选择现有大公司来为自己提供服务。
罗特里弗对Akamai给出了“买进”的评级，他本人并不持有该股。
Bobby White