摩根士丹利大难临头

Of all the blue-chip Wall Street securities firms, Morgan Stanley seemed one of the least likely to get thumped by the subprime- mortgage crisis.

The firm is a bit player in underwriting the securities known as collateralized-debt obligations that have rocked Merrill Lynch, Citigroup and others, ranking a distant No. 10.

So why are some on Wall Street starting to sweat about Morgan Stanley's exposure to this business?

Two analysts are projecting the firm may take a fourth-quarter write-down of $3 billion to $6 billion. The estimates by analysts David Trone of Fox-Pitt, Kelton and Mike Mayo of Deutsche Bank AG contributed to Morgan Stanley stock's falling $1.08, or 1.94%, yesterday in New York Stock Exchange trading to $54.51 a share. Mr. Trone projected the possible write-downs at $4 billion to $6 billion, Mr. Mayo $3 billion to $4 billion.

While the firm may not have underwritten as many CDOs, which are securities backed by pools of assets such as mortgages, Morgan Stanley may have been involved in transactions with other firms that left it with exposure to CDO risks, market participants say.

Such proprietary trading with the firm's own money already cost the firm $480 million on money-losing quantitative stock trading in the third quarter, with $390 million in losses occurring on a single day in August, according to regulatory filings.

Asked by a CNBC reporter Monday about possible fourth-quarter write-downs, Morgan Stanley Chief Executive John Mack indicated he expected numerous firms would report such hits because market prices have declined. But he wouldn't address specifics about Morgan Stanley.

The analysts' estimates are still far less than those disclosed and projected for the top two CDO underwriters, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup, both of whose chief executives lost their jobs over such losses in the past week. The situation at Morgan Stanley isn't considered as dire.

But the estimates indicate the pain from such losses may be spreading to other Wall Street firms, which in mid-December will report their results for the fourth quarter ending this month. 'Anything that touches CDOs is showing more pain than we thought,' Mr. Mayo said.

'At first the market assumed mortgage was affecting only a few poor risk managers, and now they're realizing it's going to affect almost every large investment bank,' Mr. Trone said in an interview.

Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers Holdings, Bear Stearns and Goldman Sachs Group all gave their last earnings report in mid-September based on the quarters that ended in August. Both Citigroup and Merrill reported for periods including September, when the debt market downturn worsened, as it has in October as well.

Investors appear increasingly nervous about Morgan Stanley. This week, its stock has been weaker than any of its major rivals', falling 7.5% as Goldman declined 2.8%, Merrill fell 1.6%, Lehman dropped 1.2%, and Bear fell 0.2%.

Merrill two weeks ago announced an $8.4 billion write-down for its third quarter, ended in September, and analysts estimate it may take another $4 billion or more in hits for the fourth quarter. Citigroup Monday said it faced mortgage write-downs of $8 billion to $11 billion in the fourth quarter after $3.5 billion of third-quarter hits.

For its third quarter ended in August, Morgan Stanley reported $940 million in write-downs for buyout-financing commitments, $480 million in quantitative stock-trading losses and a $1 billion drop-off in bond revenue reflecting losses in mortgage-related securities.

The firm remains a leader in the most lucrative investment-banking categories, such as stock underwriting and merger advice, commodities and debt trading, and prime brokerage catering to hedge funds, Mr. Mayo said. Even the quantitative stock trading that stumbled in August generated more than $3 billion in profits over the past decade.

Mr. Trone characterized the basis for his Morgan Stanley estimate as 'educated guesses' tied to the firm's disclosed levels of credit and real-estate exposure. He estimated the firm's exposure to CDOs is about $16 billion and that the write-downs are likely to total 25% of its CDO exposures, or $4 billion. He said the firm could take an additional $2 billion hit on straight mortgages and other risks such as exposure to SIVs, or structured investment vehicles.

Another research firm, CreditSights, yesterday estimated potential fourth-quarter CDO hits at $9.4 billion for Merrill, $5.1 billion for Goldman, $3.9 billion for Lehman, $3.8 billion for Morgan Stanley and $3.2 billion for Bear Stearns.

Randall Smith

华尔街的大型证券公司中，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)似乎是在今夏的次级抵押贷款危机中受冲击最小的一家。

摩根士丹利在债权抵押证券(CDO)的承销业务中涉足有限，在业内仅排行第十，而美林公司(Merrill Lynch)和花旗集团(Citigroup)等其他投行正是在这个领域里栽了大跟头。

既然如此，为什么还有一些华尔街人士开始对摩根士丹利在次级抵押贷款业务中的风险感到担心呢？

Fox-Pitt Kelton的分析师大卫•特若恩(David Trone)和德意志银行(Deutsche Bank AG)分析师迈克•马尤(Mike Mayo)预计摩根士丹利第四财季将进行巨额资产冲销。受此影响，该股周二收盘下跌1.08美元，至54.51美元，跌幅1.94%。特若恩和马尤分别预计该行将冲减40亿至60亿美元以及30亿至40亿美元。

市场人士指出，虽然摩根士丹利没有大规模承销债权抵押证券，但该行可能因为和其他公司的交易而面临债权抵押证券引起的相关风险。

呈报给监管机构的文件显示，在第三财季中，摩根士丹利调用自有资金进行的定量股票交易损失了4.8亿美元，其中8月份某天亏损额就高达3.9亿美元。

CNBC有线电视频道的记者周一问摩根士丹利首席执行长麦晋桁(John Mack)他预计第四季度冲减规模将有多大时，他回答说由于市价滑坡，预计将有很多公司受到影响。但麦晋桁在摩根士丹利将冲减多少资产的问题上三缄其口。

以上分析师的预测值远远小于美林公司及花旗集团这两家最大债权抵押证券承销商已经披露和预期的冲减额，而且这两家投行的首席执行长在上周都因此先后丢了饭碗。不过摩根士丹利的情况可能不会那么糟糕。

但分析师的预测表明次级抵押贷款危机引发的阵痛可能蔓延至其他华尔街公司，这些企业的第四财季将于本月结束，相关业绩报告将在下月中旬出炉。马尤表示，任何事只要和债权抵押证券沾上边，那么它所带来的麻烦就比原先想像中要大。

特若恩在一次采访中表示，最初市场认为次级抵押贷款风波不过影响了一些风险意识不强的投资经理人，现在大家开始意识到几乎所有大型投行都在劫难逃。

摩根士丹利、雷曼兄弟控股公司(Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.)、贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)和高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group)都在9月中旬提交了截至8月份的第三财季业绩报告。花旗和美林公司提交的报告涵盖了9月份的经营情况，当时信贷市场进一步恶化，而后的10月份也是阴云密布。

投资者似乎对摩根士丹利感到越来越担心了。本周该股表现不及其他大型投行，累计下跌了7.5%。相比之下，高盛、美林、雷曼兄弟和贝尔斯登的跌幅分别只有2.8%、1.6%、1.2%和0.2%。

美林两周前宣布在包含9月份的第三财季中冲销了价值84亿美元的资产，而且分析师预计该行将在第四财季再度冲销40亿美元，或者更多。花旗集团周一表示，该行第四财季可能将因为次级抵押贷款损失而冲减80亿至110亿美元的资产，此前花旗在第三财季已经冲销了35亿美元。

摩根士丹利的业绩报告显示，该行在截至8月份的第三财季中因收购融资承诺而冲销了9.4亿美元，因定量股票交易损失了4.8亿美元，而且抵押贷款证券业务的损失也使其债券业务收入减少了10亿美元。

马尤表示，摩根士丹利在一些最有赚头的投行业务中仍处在领先地位，如股票承销、并购顾问、商品及债券交易以及服务于对冲基金的主要经纪业务等。即使是在8月份遭受重创的定量股票交易业务也在过去十年中为摩根士丹利创造了超过30亿美元的利润。

特若恩称他对摩根士丹利冲减规模的预测是“有根据的”，参考的是摩根士丹利所披露的信贷及房地产业务数据。特若恩估计该行在债权抵押证券领域的头寸规模为160亿美元左右，预计其中大约四分之一、约合40亿美元将被冲减。特若恩表示，摩根士丹利还将因直接抵押贷款以及结构性投资工具(SIV)引起的风险再冲减20亿美元。

另一家调查公司CreditSights周二预计债权抵押证券业务将在第四财季分别给美林、高盛、雷曼兄弟、摩根士丹利和贝尔斯登造成94亿美元、51亿美元、39亿美元、38亿美元和32亿美元的损失。

Randall Smith
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