美国降息与否尚无定论
Why US Rate Cut Isn't A Sure Thing
尽管市场深信美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)周三会宣布降息，但就Fed自身而言，降息与否仍是五五之数。
从金融市场的动向看，投资者几乎是确信Fed会将短期关键利率下调0.25个百分点。而决策者们却要在降息0.25个百分点与不降息这二者间作出选择。至于降息0.5个百分点，虽有市场人士作出预测，但不大可能是Fed认真考虑的选择。
无论降息与否，都是存在风险的。最大的问题可能是，市场对降息的满怀信心会给Fed造成“别让人失望”的压力。通常情况下，迎合市场预期并非Fed的决策目标。
但目前的市场环境要比正常状态更为脆弱，若市场预期得不到满足，结果可能也会更糟。而如果按市场的意愿降息，Fed就必须认真考虑降息将唤起通胀心理预期的风险。
伴随这两种决定的风险都可以用Fed会议后发表的声明来缓和。若决定不降息，则可以在声明中为未来降息留下余地。若宣布降息，则可以靠声明来缓和对未来继续降息的预期。
货币市场经纪公司毅联汇业(ICAP)的首席经济学家卢•克兰德尔(Lou Crandall)表示，估计市场预期会成为影响Fed决定的因素。但他预计Fed不会降息，因为这有可能导致投资者产生12月份会再次降息的预期，从而使Fed受到相同的束缚。另一方面，若Fed认为降息乃势在必行，那市场预期可能会促使Fed决定在周三而不是在未来降息。
Fed在9月18日曾宣布将联邦基金利率调降0.5个百分点至4.75%，幅度超出市场预计。自此之后，市场预期就一直在降息或是不降息乃至降息0.5个百分点之间不断摇摆。
分析师的观点也是摇摆不定。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)的经济学家先是预测会降息0.25百分点，但在10月12日修正成不降息。摩根大通经济学家麦克尔•费拉里(Michael Feroli)先是称，股市正处于历史高位，而首次申请失业救济人数则徘徊于低位。但在此之后美国公布的住房数据不佳，而金融市场走软，他转而又表示“所有迹象都与我们的预测相抵触”。然而Fed官员发表的一系列讲话没有起到打压降息预期的效果。于是摩根大通在10月23日又预测要降息。
上周五由彭博资讯(Bloomberg)组织的调查显示，有11%的人认为不会降息，69%认为会降息0.25个百分点，20%认为会降息0.5个百分点。
若Fed作出维持利率不变的决定，原因则要归结于经济前景。虽然住房数据一直在恶化，但没有迹象显示其影响已波及到更广的经济领域。Fed官员并没有明显修正他们对明年美国经济恢复温和增长的预测。在Fed上个月降息的影响下，多种市场利率已经回落。股市也从两周前的下跌中恢复过来。尽管对通胀的担心已经减弱，但并未消失，特别是在美元走软的情况下。
虽然有些官员可能会发表言论称，以目前的经济增长和通胀水平来衡量，4.75%的联邦基金利率仍然过高。但降息的舆论基础将来自于市场预期。Fed官员无意让市场产生降息预期，因此他们必须权衡市场对经济增长和信贷市场前景的看法比他们预期中更为悲观这一可能性。
Fed在会后声明中采用的措辞一贯相当灵活，这可以用来抵消他们所作决定产生的风险。若决定降息，就会用声明来缓和市场对继续降息的预期，例如暗示经济增长面临的风险已经减弱。甚至可以再加一句说经济增长放缓的风险与通胀上升的风险相若。相反，若决定不降息，则可以用继续敲起经济增长和信贷市场警钟的办法来维持今后将降息的预期。
Greg Ip
The market is convinced the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates tomorrow, but for the Fed itself, it is a closer call.
The behavior of financial markets implies near certainty by investors of a quarter-point cut in the Fed's key short-term interest rate. But for policy makers, the decision is between the quarter-point reduction and no cut at all. A half-point cut is unlikely to get serious consideration from Fed officials, though some in the market expect it.
Both courses of action have risks. Perhaps the biggest is that the market's certainty that rates will be cut creates a burden on the Fed to deliver. Ordinarily, meeting market expectations isn't a goal in itself for the Fed.
But the current environment is more fragile than usual, and thus the consequences of disappointing the market are potentially more damaging. Against that, the Fed will have to weigh the risk that a cut will stoke inflationary psychology.
The Fed can mitigate the risks on either front with its accompanying statement. No rate cut could be accompanied by a statement opening the door to a future cut. A cut could be accompanied by a statement damping expectations of more reductions.
'I would guess market expectations would be the deciding factor,' said Lou Crandall, chief economist at ICAP, a money-market brokerage. Mr. Crandall doesn't expect a cut, citing the risk that doing so would prompt investors to expect another in December, putting the Fed in the same bind. On the other hand, he said if the Fed thinks it will cut eventually, market expectations may nudge it to doing so now rather than later, he said.
On Sept. 18, the Fed cut its target for the federal funds rate, charged on overnight loans between banks, a larger-than-expected half a percentage point to 4.75%. Since then, market expectations of what the Fed would do at its two-day meeting that ends tomorrow have swung wildly, from high odds of another rate cut, to greater odds of no cut, to again high odds of a cut, and some possibility of a half point cut.
Analysts' views moved in tandem. Economists at J.P. Morgan Chase originally called for a quarter-point cut, then revised that to no cut on Oct. 12. 'Equities were at an all-time high, [unemployment insurance] claims were low,' said Michael Feroli, an economist there. Then, 'everything turned against us,' as housing data and financial markets weakened. In addition, in a series of speeches Fed officials failed to counter expectations of a rate cut. On Oct. 23, the firm reinstated its forecast for a cut.
As of Friday, the implied probability of no change tomorrow was 11%, according to options data compiled by Bloomberg; the probability of a quarter point cut was 69%; and of half a point cut, 20%.
The case for remaining on hold comes down to the economic forecast. While housing data has deteriorated further, there is little sign so far that it has spilled over to the broader economy. Fed officials don't appear to have significantly altered their forecast of a return to moderate growth next year. Helped by last month's rate cut, many market interest rates have come down. Stocks have recovered from their swoon two weeks ago. While inflation concerns have receded, they haven't disappeared, especially given the dollar's drop.
Some officials may argue that, at 4.75%, the federal-funds rate is still high relative to underlying growth and inflation. But the biggest argument for cutting rates will be market expectations. Fed officials didn't intend to nudge the market to expect a rate cut, so they will have to weigh the possibility that markets are signaling a more pessimistic view on growth and credit markets than the Fed sees.
The Fed has considerable flexibility in the statement it releases with each rate decision that it could use to offset the risks of whatever action it takes on rates. If it cuts rates, the statement could damp expectations of more to come by suggesting the risks to growth have receded. It could go the added step of saying the risk of weaker growth equals the risk of higher inflation. Alternatively, if the Fed does not cut, the statement could keep alive hopes of a later cut by playing up continued vigilance about the economy and credit markets.
Greg Ip